Christian Mbilli Says Canelo Alvarez's Power Is Fading Before Their October Fight
Christian Mbilli told DAZN he sees Canelo's power declining ahead of their October 31 showdown.
Christian Mbilli believes time is catching up with Canelo Alvarez.
In a DAZN interview with Todd Grisham, Mbilli said the Mexican superstar is not the same fighter he was five years ago. "He's old now, but still very dangerous," Mbilli said. "He has a very, very good counterpunch. I think now his power is going down a little bit."
The numbers support at least part of that claim. Canelo has not stopped an opponent since knocking out Caleb Plant in November 2021. His last eight fights have all gone the distance, including losses to Dmitry Bivol and Terence Crawford.
Whether that drought reflects a genuine decline in power or just the quality of opposition is debatable. Canelo has faced elite movers and sharp boxers during that stretch. Against Crawford, he spent much of the fight chasing a mobile target. That is not a fight that produces stoppages regardless of how hard you punch.
Mbilli plans to force a different kind of fight. The unbeaten Canadian is a pressure fighter who works the body and looks for openings up the middle. That style could draw out Canelo's counters in a way that helps or hurts Mbilli depending on whose timing is sharper.
There is a warning in Mbilli's own record. Sergiy Derevyanchenko caught him with right hands even while fighting through an injury. Canelo's counter right is considerably more polished than anything Derevyanchenko threw.
The fight is set for October 31. If Mbilli is right about the power, his pressure style gives him a real path to the upset. If he is wrong, walking into Canelo's counters all night is a hard way to learn.
I like what Mbilli is doing here. He is not disrespecting Canelo. He is reading the tape and saying what he sees. And he is not wrong. Five years ago, Canelo was finishing guys. Now he is going 12 rounds with everyone.
But there is a difference between losing knockout power and fighting guys who are good enough to survive. Canelo went the distance with Crawford and Bivol. Those are not guys you stop. Mbilli is good, but he is not on that level yet.
Here is what worries me about Mbilli's gameplan. He wants to pressure Canelo and work the body. Great. But Canelo has been dealing with pressure fighters his entire career. He is the best counter puncher in the sport and Mbilli tends to come forward in straight lines. If Derevyanchenko was tagging him with rights while injured, imagine what a healthy Canelo does.
I think Canelo wins this by decision, probably eight rounds to four. But if Mbilli catches him clean early and Canelo really has lost a step, this could get interesting in the championship rounds.
